If we go to war with Iran, we can expect a lot of things…
…a lot of them unforeseen.
I get the feeling that people are acquiescing to a war with Iran without really knowing what a war will entail.
Let’s take a look at just what we are all in for.
Skyrocketing Oil Prices
If you thought Katrina or the BP disaster skyrocketed oil prices, wait until the Persian Gulf gets shut down. We’ll be paying through the nose. As bad as a Gulf shutdown would be, you can be sure the oil companies will use that as an excuse to skyrocket oil prices even more, making us pay with the proverbial arm and the leg. Hey, the war will soon become something not-so-fun anymore as our wallets go empty.
War Against An Ethnically, Racially and Religiously United Nation
Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran is homogenous – one religion, one language, one race, one entity. They have a long history, and they are proud of it. These make a country come together during wartime, not fall apart (as was the case with Sunni-Shia-Kurd Iraq).
War Against a Fanatical and Warlike Nation
Being Indo-Europeans (like ourselves) the Iranians love to fight and they love war as much as we do. They have kicked Ancient Roman, Medieval Arab and Modern Iraqi butt (what the hell, after beating the Arabs introduced their own brand of Islam - Shia). Iranians proved their fanatical penchant for self-sacrifice during the Iran-Iraq war. They have a grotesque ‘fountain of blood’ gushing red to commemorate the ‘martyrs.’ Martyrdom goes hand in hand with the Shiite religion like Sunday morning brunch goes with Christianity.
A Bombing Campaign That Will Never End
It’s official, and high ups in the Air Force are admitting it: once the bombing campaign starts, it will not stop. It took a month of bombing before we started Operation Desert Storm in 1991. The Air Force continued bombing sporadically for the next 12 years, representing a huge expenditure in ordnance, fuel and aircraft wastage. The point? Bombing Iran and keeping it bombed will require a gigantic amounts of fuel, ordnance and it will wear out our aircraft.
The Bottling Up Of Our Fleet
Once our fleet enters the restrictive waters of the Persian Gulf, it could become a sitting duck for any aircraft, submarine, suicide boat, coast-launched missile or mine in the area. Our countermeasures showed themselves to be less than impregnable when the destroyer USS Stark was hit by a single Iraqi Exocet anti-ship missile and knocked out (the offender got away scott free!) And remember, modern attack aircraft can carry four anti-ship missiles…and launch them simultaneously. And all our countermeasures did not prevent our military ships from hitting mines in the Gulf either.
Occupation of Both Sides of the Strait of Hormuz
If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will require amphibious landings on both sides of the strait to keep the strait open. (Iranian territory on one side and United Arab Emirates on the other). This ‘occupation’ would most likely be permanent.
Advance to Teheran will be Through Tough Territory
There is no easy way to Teheran. All of the terrain on the way there looks a lot like Afghanistan – towering mountains. Mountainous territory is perfect for tunneling the enemy into ambushes and holding off superior forces. Furthermore, Iran is not lacking in modern weaponry – mines, missiles, infrared equipment. Our forces will have to advance across some pretty limited terrain while being confronted by fanatical, well equipped and highly trained forces.
Epic Occupation of the Entire East Coast of the Persian Gulf
In addition to a separate advance on Teheran, another force will have to march out of Kuwait and continue down the eastern coast of Iran from Kuwait all the way down to Pakistan and occupy it permanently if we hope to make the gulf coast secure for shipping - hey, that's a 1000 MILE FRONT we're gonna have to secure to make the Gulf safe for the Western World!
The long occupation ‘front’ from Kuwait to Pakistan, along the coast will stretch American forces to the limit – it’s a gigantic area to occupy, but occupied it must be if we are to hold open the Persian Gulf. This very long 1000 front will be subject to Iranian artillery harassment and guerilla attacks upon thinly stretched US forces until the end of hostilities.
US Moves Will Alarm China
40% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz – a lot of it to China. You can imagine China’s alarm when it sees the US occupying its biggest oil causeway and its ally being pummeled. What the heck, China might just decide to liquidate that $2 trillion dollar bond debt it is holding for us and demolish the dollar. Can you spell hyper-inflation? China has already threatened a 'reaction' should Iran be attacked.
US Moves Will Alarm Russia
One must remember Russia will lose all influence over the Middle East when Syria and Iran fall to NATO attack. In addition, Russia’s paranoia about ‘being surrounded’ will be exacerbated by a hostile border spreading now spreading from Finland to Turkey and possibly continuing from Iran to Bangladesh. Russia has already threatened NATO with 'consequences' should Iran be invaded.
We Will Be Fighting Israel's Butt Kickers
The Israeli Army is the most modern and well trained land army in the world. Iranian Hezbollah militias stopped it cold when it attempted to advance into Lebanon in 2006 by simply using well trained and well equipped infantry. We would be stupid to ignore this fact. It seems Hezbollah was ‘cheating’ by equipping its infantry with infrared cloaks which made the Israeli infrared imaging devices useless and the Hezbollah anti-tank squads ‘invisible.’ And the Iranians were good at shooting those missiles too….and they seemed to have endless supplies of them…and the missiles were state-of-the-art. Again, we would be stupid to ignore this very important fact considering the American armored forces are trained to fight at night using infrared imaging devices, just like the Israelis were.
Once attacked, Iran will initiate a full-scale Shiite fundamentalist uprising in Iraq against the pro-US government. This new fighting could draw overstretched US forces into Iraq as well.
Once attacked, Iran will initiate a full scale Afghan war by supporting the western warlords bordering Iran with modern weaponry, who will ally with the Taliban in the east. This new fighting could draw overstretched US forces into Aghanistan as well.
Can you spell D-R-A-F-T?
Russia Could Re-Supply Iran
Though Iran has no border with Russia, she does have direct borders with nations friendly to Iran who do. Tons of Russian equipment and supplies can flow freely through these porous friendly borders to Iran with NATO being able to do little or nothing about it.
So there you have it:
-skyrocketing oil prices
-the taking on of a homogenous, united, warlike country
-an unending bombing campaign (we’re already short of smart weapons)
-our fleet vulnerable in the restrictive waters of the Persian Gulf
-permanent occupation of the Strait of Hormuz
-permanent occupation of the eastern coast of the Persian Gulf
-a military advance through towering mountainous Zagros mountains to Teheran
-a new civil war in Iraq
-a new civil war in Afghanistan
-provocation of Russia and China leading to unforeseen circumstances
Do we really have the money, the resources and the determination to handle all this?
How about war bonds?
I didn’t think so.
At the very least, let’s all have a realistic idea of what we’re getting into before jumping into the Persian Gulf (oh, excuse me, its 'Arabian Gulf' now) morass.